02.11.08
Microsoft Stuck in a Novell NetWare-like Dilemma
It’s not just XP cannibalising Vista
In a series of posts, out of which this is the most recent one, we explore the secrets behind Microsoft’s financial situation and the hypnosis that conceals it. Past writings contain dozens of references from the well-established press and they indicate that Microsoft is far from telling the true story.
“Like Novell with Netware, Microsoft is already clinging on to legacy products and it does so at its own peril.”In comes an E-mail which talks about the Yahoo deal being a case of “Half cash, half stock”. We previously pointed out the fact that Microsoft would need a big loan just to be able to afford a Yahoo takeover. Personal wealth aside (e.g. Steve Ballmer, Bill Gates and countless others), the E-mail we received contains links to articles that were mentioned before (for example here).
SCO said it was doing well shortly before that unexpected Chapter 11 and Novell, which admittedly is cooking the books, had some financial problems too. Like Novell with Netware, Microsoft is already clinging on to legacy products and it does so at its own peril.
Microsoft could learn a lesson from a different explorer to the Americas, Hernan Cortez, whose policy was to “burn the boats.” It’s understandable that Microsoft would cling to its profitable past. That past churns out billions of dollars in profits each quarter. Who wouldn’t want that?
Microsoft needs to evolve in order to survive, to quote just one analyst about the Yahoo bid:
Microsoft’s Last Big Beat: Internet Domination or Death
What can $44.6B USD mean? Well, for Microsoft (MSFT) it may mean the cost of survival.
Even a few months ago, a very senior Microsoft executive referred to this shift to the Web as a case of “financial life or death.” To be fair, many companies suffer from an ongoing/approached recession, but that does not justify cheating and even stealing from investors. What’s truly required is transparency, honesty. █
Related (older) writings:
Paul Graham’s “Microsoft is Dead”
A few days ago I suddenly realized Microsoft was dead. I was talking to a young startup founder about how Google was different from Yahoo. I said that Yahoo had been warped from the start by their fear of Microsoft. That was why they’d positioned themselves as a “media company” instead of a technology company. Then I looked at his face and realized he didn’t understand. It was as if I’d told him how much girls liked Barry Manilow in the mid 80s. Barry who?
Microsoft? He didn’t say anything, but I could tell he didn’t quite believe anyone would be frightened of them.
Will Microsoft Survive the Next 10 Years?
I am not really an expert in this but when I read all the negative headlines and articles I ask myself if Microsoft really will survive the next 10 years.
Leaving legacy behind…
Highlight: Novell was the first to acknowledge that Microsoft FUD tactics had substance. Novell then used anti-Linux FUD to market itself. 
Highlight: Xandros let Microsoft make patent claims and brag about (paid-for) OOXML support. 
Highlight: Linspire's CEO not only fell into Microsoft arms, but he also assisted the company's attack on GNU/Linux. 
Highlight: Microsoft craves pseudo (proprietary) standards and gets its way using proxies and influence which it buys. 
Highlight: The invasion into the open source world is intended to leave Linux companies neglected, due to financial incentives from Microsoft. 
Analysis: Xen, an open source hypervisor, possibly fell victim to Microsoft's aggressive (and stealthy) acquisition-by-proxy strategy.