03.08.09
Windows Vista Breaks the Internet, Vista 7 Fixes Nothing and Meanwhile Windows Fades Up North
Windows eclipse has begun
Summary: Windows Vista continues to disappoint, its successor predicted to be a disappointment; Microsoft partners in Iceland already turn to Free software
THE Fiasco of the Year may add fire to the DNS problem it has already created. According to this, Vista Windows is ‘breaking the Internet’ so to speak.
Warning: the following is excessively technical, and is intended more for the sake of the next poor sod who types “vista dns round robin resolution” into Google than it is for my actual friends list. (Except for a few of you. And you know who you are.) Also, since I want this to be searchable on Google, I can’t friends-lock it, so I’m not going to mention who I work for; please don’t do so in comments, which are screened for that reason.
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And Microsoft have broken the Internet. Again. Although, to be fair, they did have some help this time from the IETF.
An ongoing debate places some of the blame on Microsoft. Sympathisers of the company from Redmond spin it differently however.
Windows Vista is already facing 2 lawsuits (potentially class actions) and one of them is turning up the heat.
The California woman suing Microsoft Corp. over Windows Vista’s downgrade rights revised her lawsuit Thursday to focus her charges on the requirement that users buy the most expensive versions of Vista if they want to replace that OS with Windows XP.
This is known as double- or triple-dipping. People who purchase a computer with Windows XP might actually count as several buyers of Windows Vista, as least in Microsoft’s books (and corresponding vanity numbers).
A writer from IDG recommends that Microsoft turns its back on Windows Vista as though it’s already estranged. He also seems to speculate that Vista 7 remains far from its release date. This coincides with CNN, which predicts a release will come no sooner than 2010.
I refuse to print hype from Microsoft about how wonderful their Windows 7 operating system will be when it ships in a year or two.
The Fiasco of the Year may soon have a similar successor based on this Vista 7 cartoon. Bloomberg has this report predicting failure for Microsoft/Windows on sub-notebooks as well (despite Vista 7).
This time, as Microsoft readies Windows 7, the company is planning a basic version, as well as more expensive editions that are also targeted at netbooks. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said last week that he will make sure consumers can “trade up.”
‘Pessimistic’
Many netbook buyers won’t go for it, because they want the cheapest option possible, said John DiFucci, the JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst who asked the question that prompted Ballmer’s comment. That means investors shouldn’t expect Microsoft to make much more money on netbook software, the New York-based analyst said in a note to clients. Microsoft hasn’t released specific prices for the different versions of Windows 7.
“I don’t know that there’s much room to charge more than what’s been charged currently,” said Michael Cherry, an analyst at Directions on Microsoft in Kirkland, Washington. “I’m pessimistic about this.”
With only 3 processes allowed, Microsoft is simply hobbling fine computers and the customer will not be foolish enough to bite. Microsoft’s main concern here is the margins, which it is unable to elevate back to old tariffs. It’s all the 'fault' of GNU/Linux, so pressure on OEMs may be the only thing that keeps Windows afloat at this stage. Based on this new informal report, Microsoft is being abandoned even by its own partners right now. They already move to Free software in Iceland.
And what would you do? Well. My sources tell me a lot is afoot. Several MCP’s are bailing out, switching over to Free Software and restructuring their business model. Keep the revenue inside Iceland, sell better technical services for less money and yet double their revenue. “Why didn’t we do this earlier?”
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…those who survive will switch to Free Software, and those who don’t will go bankrupt.
“I’d have thought that Iceland would have learned the lesson a decade ago,” tells us a reader, further arguing that “Microsoft denied an Icelandic version of Windows, even when the country offered to pay for the localization work. Only when the country started to move to FOSS, did the get Windows. Too bad, they fell for it like a bunch of chumps. They could have saved billions by now if they had gone FOSS in 1999.
“Keep in mind that the MCP’s are largely the ones responsible for the mess in the first place. These are not faceless corporations but real people, who have gone out of their way to fuck over their fellow countrymen. Any remediation must take into account these individuals.
“What we have seen has been fraud and collusion on an unprecedented and nearly unimaginable scale. Getting hold of those who have betrayed positions of trust and moving them to positions where they can do no further harm will be very difficult.”
Nobody is patient enough to wait for Vista 7, which will be both expensive and disappointing. Wonderful and comprehensive distributions of GNU/Linux are already here, readily available for free-of-charge download. █
The Microsoft ecosystem in Iceland is imploding
twitter said,
March 8, 2009 at 2:18 pm
M$ is screwed, unable to bully retailers, OEMs and is even having trouble collecting money owed to themselves from MVPs. PC makers don’t expect Vista 7 to come to the rescue either. Vista convinced them that M$ OS no longer drive sales. It should also be noted that ASUS, which played ball with M$ and crippled their best selling GNU/Linux EEE PC, suffered their first ever quarterly loss on unsold inventory costs recently. Every part of the M$ empire is imploding, OEMs, retail partners, software partners and these license brokers, a cascading problem that may be systemic. M$ will be bankrupt before 2011 and there’s a good chance of them going under before the end of this year. This is why their stock price has sunk to a 52 week low of $13.31, less than 25% of the Y2K price, and continues to head south.
M$ is failing.
Roy Schestowitz said,
March 8, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Microsoft has lobbied aggressively for the bailout.
ZiggyFish said,
March 8, 2009 at 6:21 pm
I see Microsoft lasting til the end of the year, but if Microsoft doesn’t release Vista SP 7 soon, they won’t last 2012.
Let’s just hope these trends continue, and hope that software patients get band. Not only for us, but for IBM, AMD and other chip manufactures because without an OS, or at least an updated OS these companies will not exist.
Yfrwlf said,
March 9, 2009 at 7:53 am
“pressure on OEMs may be the only thing that keeps Windows afloat at this stage”
Well, that and the software selection problems still facing Linux. Windows still has the better software for it in many areas, so consumers will be paying to have that extra bit of choice if they buy Windows. Not to mention the software packaging fragmentation which distros refuse to put effort behind to resolve so that consumers have even the same choice of *Linux* software no matter what distro they choose.
Yfrwlf said,
March 9, 2009 at 7:56 am
Well, OK, the biggest software deficits on Linux are mostly limited to webcam-compatible IM clients (come ON Jabber and Jingle, why are you taking so long??) and games. Can only hope that some of these big companies will find targeting Linux acceptable with their upcoming titles, since open source games still have a ways to go to catch up unfortunately, though Blender seems to be trying fairly hard to make game creation more accessible and there are already some really impressive Blender games. So, hopefully those things aren’t too much further away. ^^
Roy Schestowitz said,
March 9, 2009 at 7:58 am
This may be true, but let’s also consider the fact that OEMs could deliver multi-boot systems (or fast boot, or VMs) without additional charges. Consider the BeOS story for details.
Fortunately, that’s already changing.
Yfrwlf said,
March 9, 2009 at 9:39 am
Yes, which will help increase Linux familiarity/adoption, and to ween the masses off it if they come to fancy it and it quenches all their needs. Then the next time they buy a computer, they might just say “no I don’t want to pay more for having Windows too, I don’t need it”.
That is, if they are given the choice. Unfortunately, and ironically, real competition isn’t given a chance very much here in the U.S.. Microsoft doesn’t want to compete and play fair, but everyone already knew that.
Roy Schestowitz said,
March 9, 2009 at 9:43 am
A greater problem is that the Gates family./circles have a great influence over the government, which in turns offers Microsoft this protection (even overseas where it intervenes). There is substantial evidence.
Yfrwlf said,
March 9, 2009 at 10:21 am
Always shocked there isn’t a massive lawsuit against Microsoft for forcing all computers in stores to be sold with their OS instead of being given a choice. With all the other lawsuits you hear about where companies take away consumer choice and with destroying competition, that’s one that I’ve never understood why someone doesn’t do something about.
Roy Schestowitz said,
March 9, 2009 at 10:23 am
Consider what they did in Wal-Mart and how they leaned on Dell.
Roy Bixler said,
March 9, 2009 at 12:02 pm
What Microsoft does to Dell and other PC vendors is old hat, used since at least the days of Windows 3.x. There was also a lot of evidence of that during the US DOJ vs. Microsoft case of about 10 years ago. I recall that the DOJ got some very tepid cooperation from the likes of Dell. They were scared to testify against Microsoft. Even though the DOJ supposedly won the case, the PC vendors have been proven right in their reluctance because any additional leverage they got against Microsoft in the terms of the settlement is minimal.
Yfrwlf said,
March 9, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Companies giving certain other companies special deals should be illegal. It stifles competition. In the case of Microsoft, they should be forced to sell Windows to anyone who wants to buy it at the same price, flat rate, across the board, including the OEMs, no ifs ands or buts. Get rid of favouritism as much as you can, and you make the market a much fairer place.
If that card, nay, that entire deck was taken away from Microsoft, they would be nothing in comparison to Linux. As it is, “free markets” favour monopolies pulling stunts like these so they can stay monopolies. The only salvation comes from the fact Linux costs $0, otherwise sadly I don’t think Linux would have a chance. You have to perform some AMAZING acts in order for an unfair monopolistic market to give you room to breath, and $0 is pretty amazing.
Only reason why Apple is alive is because it used BSD, and it selected a small amount of hardware to focus on. In uncharted open hardware waters if Apple consumers actually had open choice in their hardware like Linux and Windows users get, Apple would sink unless BSD drivers could save it’s sorry butt.
Roy Schestowitz said,
March 9, 2009 at 1:10 pm
@Yfrwlf:
I have copies of confidential memos and contracts between Microsoft and large OEMs (e.g. Acer, Dell, Compaq/HP). I intend to analyse these and highlight favouritism in the future. We need them translated to plain text.
Special deals were based on all sorts of reciprocal agreements (e.g. promotion of MSIE). There’s also volume that affects pricing and Intel used the same illegal tactics against AMD.
@Roy B:
Yes, Dell was afraid of retaliation.
David Gerard said,
March 9, 2009 at 4:48 pm
On the subject of Vista and Windows 7, it’s instructive to look at a previous famous technology marketing failure: the Ford Edsel. It cost a fortune to develop, was thrown at a market who just didn’t want it and had all manner of design issues. Some very nice ideas, badly implemented with mediocre quality control, at too high a price.
The most annoying parallel is the Edsel’s successor, the Comet, which was a huge hit … despite starting life as the Edsel Comet before the cursed brand name was hastily removed. Presumably Microsoft hopes for a similar effect.
Roy Schestowitz said,
March 9, 2009 at 4:54 pm
But… Edsel, unlike Vista, was not developed in a rush. Vista didn’t have much development — let alone testing — put into it (it’s a variant of Server 2003, XP’s sibling).
Development effort went into Longhorn, which was “rebooted” (Microsoft’s word) or suffered a “development collapse”.
Can’t beat modular code!
Roy Schestowitz said,
March 9, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Speaking of modularity, Microsoft Enderle is appearing in the MSBBC today bragging about his buddy’s (Ballmer) upcoming version of Windows, which he calls modular:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7932149.stm
A little incestuous, no? Both people are notorious for their relationship with Microsoft.
David Gerard said,
March 9, 2009 at 5:00 pm
True. However, the spending and hubris match. Read the “Design controversies” section of that article.
Roy Schestowitz said,
March 9, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Don’t worry. The MSBBC spoke to the “independent” Microsoft Enderle and they can verify that design was taken care of and it’s now “modular”, even if Microsoft explicitly told Microsoft bloggers that the plan to make Windows modular got canned in 2008.
David Gerard said,
March 9, 2009 at 5:48 pm
It probably has a microkernel too.
Roy Schestowitz said,
March 9, 2009 at 6:09 pm
One of the reasons Windows used to crash a lot more was lack of separation between kernel and high-level stuff like GUI.
David Gerard said,
March 9, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Yeeeup. Dave Cutler gave them a fantastic and well-thought-out structure and then they (a) put Win32 on top of it (b) shoved stuff in the kernel that just didn’t belong there for speed.
There’s a paper, “Windows NT from a Unix Point of View”, written around the time of NT 3.51, which is heartbreaking in describing what they were trying to do. It no longer appears to be on microsoft.com; I’d love to find a copy again.